Five Key Factors Drive the Internet Growth Trajectory

Cisco issued results of their annual Visual Networking Index (VNI) Forecast (2011-2016). It's the company's ongoing initiative to forecast and analyze Internet Protocol (IP) networking growth and trends worldwide. The VNI Forecast update projects the significant amount of IP traffic expected to travel public and private networks -- including Internet, managed IP, and mobile data traffic generated by all users.

This year, Cisco has also developed a new complementary study -- the Cisco VNI Service Adoption Forecast, which includes global and regional residential, consumer mobile, and business services growth rates.

By 2016, annual global IP traffic is forecast to be 1.3 zettabytes -- (a zettabyte is equal to a sextillion bytes, or a trillion gigabytes). The projected increase of global IP traffic between 2015 and 2016 alone is more than 330 exabytes, which is almost equal to the total amount of global IP traffic generated in 2011 (369 exabytes).

This significant level of traffic growth is driven by five key factors:

1. An increasing number of devices: The proliferation of tablets, mobile phones, and other smart devices as well as machine-to-machine (M2M) connections are driving up the demand for connectivity. By 2016, the forecast projects there will be nearly 18.9 billion network connections -- almost 2.5 connections for each person on earth -- compared with 10.3 billion in 2011.
2. More Internet users: By 2016, there are expected to be 3.4 billion Internet users -- about 45 percent of the world's projected population according to United Nations estimates.
3. Faster broadband speeds: The average fixed broadband speed is expected to increase nearly fourfold, from 9 megabits per second (Mbps) in 2011 to 34 Mbps in 2016.
4. More video: By 2016, 1.2 million video minutes -- the equivalent of 833 days (or over two years) -- would travel the Internet every second.
5. Wi-Fi growth: By 2016, over half of the world's Internet traffic is expected to come from Wi-Fi connections.

The Cisco VNI Forecast Methodology

The annual Cisco VNI Forecast was developed to estimate global Internet Protocol traffic growth and trends. Widely used by service providers, regulators, and industry influencers alike, the Cisco VNI Forecast is based on in-depth analysis and modeling of traffic, usage and device data from independent analyst forecasts.

Cisco validates its forecast, inputs and methodology with actual traffic data provided voluntarily by global service providers and more than one million consumers worldwide. The following Cisco VNI Forecast resources and tools are available online:

• The updated Cisco VNI Forecast Highlights Tool provides key forecast predictions in short sound bites that can be chosen on a global, regional or country level (these include device, traffic and network speed projections).
• The Cisco VNI Forecast and Methodology, 2011 – 2016 White Paper provides the full detailed findings of the study.
• The Cisco VNI Forecast widget provides customized views of the growth of various network traffic types around the globe (revised for this 2011 - 2016 forecast period).
• The Cisco VNI Service Adoption Forecast White Paper provides a unique view into global and regional trends of next-generation residential, consumer mobile, and business end-user services and applications, underlying addressable markets and relevant devices and connections.
• The Cisco VNI Service Adoption Forecast Highlights Tool provides primary global and regional takeaways on user and subscriber, device and connection, and service adoption penetration rates.
• The New Cisco Data Meter application (beta version 1.0) for Android smartphones provides users with the following valuable network-related data: estimated and projected bandwidth consumption, individual app usage, Wi-Fi and cell connection speeds, and the location of nearby Wi-Fi networks.

Historically, Cisco VNI projections have generally been viewed as conservative; however, the forecast has proven to be quite accurate throughout its six-year history.

• In the initial 2007 VNI Forecast, Cisco projected an overall IP traffic volume of 28.4 exabytes per month by 2011. The actual volume in 2011 was 30.7 exabytes per month. The actual volume was about 7 percent higher than what Cisco projected five years ago.
• In the 2008 VNI Forecast, Cisco predicted that in 2010 Internet video would surpass P2P in traffic volume. In 2010, Internet video surpassed P2P in traffic volume -- confirming the Cisco VNI Forecast.

Global Cloud Index: the Evolution of Data Center Traffic

As 2011 comes to a close, many busy executives and IT managers will be pondering the continued adoption of cloud applications within their organizations. How can a business be adequately prepared for the anticipated increase in demand for managed cloud services? Moreover, what are the key related market indicators that are shaping the future of emerging business technology deployments?

The Cisco Global Cloud Index is an ongoing effort to forecast the growth of global data center and cloud-based IP traffic. The forecast includes trends associated with data center virtualization and cloud computing.

From 2000 to 2008, peer-to-peer file sharing dominated Internet traffic. As a result, the majority of Internet traffic did not touch a data center, but was communicated directly between Internet users. Since 2008, most Internet traffic has originated or terminated in a data center.

Data center traffic will continue to dominate Internet traffic for the foreseeable future, but the nature of data center traffic will undergo a fundamental transformation brought about by cloud applications, services, and infrastructure.

By 2015, one-third of data center traffic will be cloud traffic.

Global Data Center IP Traffic: Already in the Zettabyte Era

The Internet may not reach the zettabyte era until 2015, but the data center has already entered the zettabyte era. While the amount of traffic crossing the Internet and IP WAN networks is projected to reach nearly 1 zettabyte per year in 2015, the amount of data center traffic is already over 1 zettabyte per year -- and by 2015 will quadruple to reach 4.8 zettabytes per year.

This represents a 33 percent CAGR. The higher volume of data center traffic is due to the inclusion of traffic inside the data center (Typically, definitions of Internet and WAN stop at the boundary of the data center).

The global data center traffic forecast, a major component of the Global Cloud Index, covers network data centers worldwide operated by service providers as well as private enterprises.

Traffic Destinations: Most Traffic Stays Within the Data Center

In 2010, 77 percent of traffic remains within the data center, and this will decline only slightly to 76 percent by 2015. The fact that the majority of traffic remains within the data center can be attributed to several factors:

• Functional separation of application servers and storage, which requires all replication and backup traffic to traverse the data center.
• Functional separation of database and application servers, such that traffic is generated whenever an application reads from or writes to a central database.
• Parallel processing, which divides tasks into multiple smaller tasks and sends them to multiple servers, contributing to internal data center traffic.

The ratio of traffic exiting the data center to traffic remaining within the data center might be expected to increase over time, because video files are bandwidth-heavy and do not require database or processing traffic commensurate with their file size.

However, the ongoing virtualization of data centers offsets this trend. Virtualization of storage, for example, increases traffic within the data center because virtualized storage is no longer local to a rack or server.

How does the transition of workloads from traditional data centers to cloud data centers effect the typical IT environment? Find the answer to this question, and learn more about the implications, by browsing the Cisco Global Cloud Index forecast data.