The SEC Schedule: Is 8 or 9 Games the Real Question?

The ADs didn't make any decisions. After all the debate, in the media and on the Internet, the ADs didn't make any decisions. While it seems there are some likely scenarios, there is one I keep thinking about. One that isn't some namby-pamby 'ohh, we don't want to play such tough schedules' solution (I'm talking to you Scott Stricklin).

So, what will happen in the SEC? Strictly on votes, It'll be very close. There are four schools that will go to 9 games in a heart beat, just to keep the two rivalry games (UGA, Alabama, UT and Auburn).  There are at least four schools that are absolutely dead set against any game that makes their football season harder (Mississippi State, Vandy, Kentucky and Ole Miss). That leaves six schools that will end up casting the deciding votes. Of those schools, I'd wager at least two of them (LSU and South Carolina) are ok with 9 game schedules, as long as they could be convinced there is a strong enough revenue bump. So where do Arkansas, Texas A&M, Missouri and Florida fall?

The other issue is figuring out what to do about revenue inequities over half the schools hosting five home conference games and half only hosting four. I am sure there are some accounting guys smart enough to figure that out.

Two other things that are rolling around in my head: 1) Will we see more expansion/what will further expansion do? 2) What if the current divisions are remade?

I don't know about that first question. I don't think the SEC will go any further until it becomes obvious there is a looming 'super conference' showdown. If they would do so in a year, why not just do it now and save some headaches.

As for the second? I can see scenarios that move Missouri and another team from the East to the West, with the two Alabama schools moving East. The most obvious choice of that East team would be Kentucky, as they aren't likely to care if they get routinely pummeled by Auburn, LSU, Alabama play a slightly different set of teams every year in football. I don't think it'll be Vanderbilt, as they care about having a shot at finally beating Tennessee.

As far as other schools that might be on the list? How about Georgia or Florida? I don't see what moving Georgia over would do to help the conundrum of The Deep South's Oldest Rivalry. But then there is Florida. Florida could move over. Georgia-Florida would have to be kept, but that is easier to do than keeping two or more 'permanent' rivalries.  The only sticking point there would be the Florida-Tennessee game, but my guess is Foley wouldn't mind trading that for keeping LSU on the schedule.

PWD thinks Missouri doesn't care as long as they get Arkansas and TAMU every year, something their AD has hinted at. This scenario also makes that happen.  We go to 9 games, Georgia-Auburn, Alabama-Tennessee, Alabama-Auburn happen because they are divisional games. Find a way for Georgia-Florida to happen. Mizzu-Arkansas would have a new border war game. Mizzu-TAMU would have the 'Big 12 Championship' game. LSU-Florida would have to travel to each other's stadium every other year.

Am I the only one that thinks this is a possibility?
TD

PS. There is an added bonus of South Carolina fans decrying the loss of their 'traditional' rivalry with Florida.

2012 UGA Football Schedule Rumors

The SEC announced today that they won't be finished with the 2012 football schedule until after Christmas. With that in mind, here's the UGA football schedule as I'm projecting based on the rumors and rumblings:

Week 1: Buffalo (home)
Week 2: Missouri (away)
Week 3: Florida Atlantic (home)
Week 4: Vanderbilt (home)
Week 5: Tennessee (home)
Week 6: South Carolina (away)
Week 7: Kentucky (away)
Week 8: BYE Week
Week 9: Florida (Jax)
Week 10: Alabama (home)
Week 11: Auburn (away)
Week 12: Georgia Southern (home)
Week 13: Georgia Tech (home)

There's a chance we could see Bama at home in Week 8 before the Cocktail Party with the bye week after Florida, but that's not what I heard earlier this week. This is all still fluid to some degree so you could see even more changes. However, this is the latest as of yesterday's rumor mill.

The games that are either confirmed or darn close to being confirmed are Buffalo, Missouri, FAU, Georgia Southern and Georgia Tech. Given that Ole Miss appears to be playing Florida and Missouri from the SEC East next year, it looks very likely that Georgia does get Bama...at home.

UPDATE: Various other media outlets are saying that UGA will play Ole Miss at home in Week 10 instead of Alabama. That would be great, but I'm struggling with the conflicting Ole Miss rumors which have them playing:

Missouri and Vandy
or Florida and Vandy
or Missouri and Florida
or UGA and Vandy

I had projected earlier this offseason that we'd get Ole Miss and Aubrn as our Western Teams. I would prefer to have been right then....than the post above.

PWD

2012 Schedule Rumor: UGA vs. Bama in Athens

The SEC is a near mortal lock to operate with an 8 game SEC schedule in 2012. As I've said numerous times, this will be temporary before the SEC ultimate goes to a 9 game schedule in 2-4 years.

With that in mind, we had been projecting that UGA would drop a road game at Bama from the 2012 UGA schedule in favor of a road game at Missouri. With the new 6-1-1 divisional rotation, this seemed to make the most sense and have the smallest impact on everyone involved. In that scenario, UGA's SEC West opponents would be Auburn (road) and Ole Miss (home).

However, we've hit a snag. PowerMizzou is reporting that Missouri's SEC West schedule will include Ole Miss (road) and Texas A&M (home). This means, Ole Miss is off the table to come to Athens.

Billy Lucci of TexasAgs.com is reporting that Texas A&M's SEC East opponents will be Missouri (permanent) and Florida. Mr. SEC is reporting that Tennessee's SEC West opponents will be Bama (permanent) and Mississippi State next year. (He also theorizes on some other match-ups which aren't a done deal).

If the rumors above are correct, Ole Miss, Miss State and Texas A&M are off the table as rotational opponents for UGA next year. That only leaves Alabama, Arkansas and LSU as options. More than likely, it looks like Bama will be coming to Athens.

However, Bama doesn't have an SEC road game to give. That means some other SEC West opponent will be swapping home/away dates with Bama next year. I project that type of movement is already in the cards for the MSU vs. UK game (which will likely stay in Lexington in 2012). As well as the Vandy vs. Ole Miss game which will likely be in Nashville again this year.

More than likely, it would be Arkansas going back to Tuscaloosa in 2012. Again...this all assumes the first 3 leaks are correct.

What do you think about Bama coming to Athens in 2012?

PWD

The problem with an 8 game SEC schedule

I think it was Tony Barnhart who originally said a year or two ago that a 14 team league playing 8 conference games wasn't really a conference at all. It was two federations with a title game.

By going with a 6-1-1 rotation where we keep the Auburn game alive every year, Georgia would play Alabama twice every 12 years. We'd only get them at home once over that period.

Consider our series with Clemson. In 1987, Georgia stopped playing Clemson on an annual basis. We booked two year deals with them in '90-'91, '94-'95, '02-'03 and '13-14. Let's ignore the future dates for a moment.

From 1988-2011, we faced Clemson six times (3 at home) over a 24 year period. Applying the 14 team, 8 league game model to the past would mean that we would have faced Alabama 4 times during that same period. Only twice at home. Same with LSU.

Rotational Models:

• 5-2-1: Used by the SEC from '92-'01 while at 12 teams. This model meant your four non-permanent opponents only came to Athens once every 8 years.
  
• 5-1-2: Used by the SEC from '02-Today. Your five non-permanent opponents come to Athens once every five years.
  
• 6-1-1: Proposed model for a 14 team league playing 8 games. You get the 6 non-permanent opponents at home once every 12 years.
  
• 6-1-2: A 14 team model that brings non-permanent opponents to Athens once every six years. Not noticeably different than today.

PWD

SEC saying it will stick to 8 league games

The SEC's PR folks said today there has been no discussion about moving to nine conference games. You can take from that one of three things:

A. The SEC really doesn't want to schedule tougher games and South Carolina's president didn't know what he was talking about when he said 9 games was the end destination.

B. The SEC wants to push for 8 games and give the 9th game up in contract renegotiation with its TV partners. Basically, the talk is just negotiation tactics.

C. Option B is true, and the SEC will end up at 9. However, it wants 8 games for the next two years to lessen the buyout requirements for future previously scheduled future games.

I'm going with option B. If we play 8 league games next year, we're almost definitely dropping Bama for a road game at Missouri. The only way that wouldn't happen would be as part of a larger reshuffling which moves our "home" game vs. UF to odd numbered years from its current even numbered years. That sounds easy, but it's a change that would involve more than just UGA and UF.

PWD